NBA Playoffs: How Often Do Home Teams Win All 7 Games?

Last week, we took a look at how often teams win the series when they draw first blood on the road. Favorites, as in “the team that gets Game 1 and, if necessary, Game 7 at home”, almost always win—if it hadn’t been for Golden State in 2016, that record would be flawless going back to at least 1991. Underdogs only win 41.2 percent of the time (again, since 1991), but since they only get three home games, they’re up against the wall from the moment Game 1 tips off. Last night (July 17), the Milwaukee Bucks won Game 5 …

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NBA Finals Don’t Start ’til the Road Team Wins, Tested (Part 2)

In Part 1 yesterday, we looked at the NBA Finals from 1991 to 2005 to determine what happens to a series when the road team wins a game and breaks serve. Because with the Milwaukee Bucks, as of this writing, down 2-0 in the 2021 Finals and headed back to Milwaukee on Sunday night, we know they’re going to have to beat the Phoenix Suns on the road at some point, but if they hold serve at home and win Game 5 back in Phoenix, what will it do to their overall chance to win the series? For the first …

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NBA Finals Don’t Start ’til the Road Team Wins, Tested (Part 1)

The Phoenix Suns held serve at home to win the first two games of the 2021 NBA Finals, but if the Milwaukee Bucks are able to do the same, we’ll be looking in a week or so at a tied series, 2-2, with what will basically become a best-of-three for all the marbles. On the other hand, if the Suns win one out of two, then the complexion of Game 5 changes completely, with the home team poised to win it all on their own floor and with the consequences of a loss far reduced as they’ll still have a …

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