Tag: Statistical Tests
Analysis

The 2019 NBA All-Stars According to Advanced Stats

- by Fox Doucette

Sports fans are, by and large, idiots. Need proof? OK, look at the All-Star fan vote counts and take a look at Draymond Green and Derrick Rose. Sentimentality is one thing (I am all for Dwyane Wade getting an All-Star appearance as a sort of Lifetime Achievement Award for a fantastic Hall of Fame career, the same way I was OK with a washed-up Michael Jordan in 2003 and an equally ‘he’s toast’ Kobe Bryant in 2016.) I am also OK with a player becoming an instant fan favorite and getting a sort of ‘borrow against future stardom’ star next …

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Analysis

The Greatest Defensive Teams in NBA History

- by Fox Doucette

In a basketball era where scoring is completely off the charts and the NBA seems to break its league-wide record for Offensive Rating with each passing season and with every made three-pointer, in a world gone mad where even centers like Brook Lopez are making eight triples in a game, and in a league where defense would, it seems, be a thing of the past, there are still great teams having great defensive seasons. After all, if the average team scores 110.1 points per game (as the NBA is league-wide this year, with a 109.7 Offensive Rating because pace is …

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Analysis

Did the Three-Pointer Really “Kill Basketball”?

- by Fox Doucette

There has been plenty of complaining in NBA circles by the likes of Gregg Popovich that the 3-point shot “ruined basketball.” And on some level, having a shot that is worth fully 50% more points than other shots on the court does threaten to over-value it. After all, so far this season, teams are making 35 percent of their three-pointers, while 51.7 percent of two-pointers are going in. This means that per 100 attempts (and not counting and-ones, which we will eventually get to), teams score 105 points on threes and 103.4 points on twos. And that’s not much of …

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Analysis

Trevor Ariza Breaks NBA Advanced Stats

- by Fox Doucette

As a general rule, advanced stats tend to move in, if not lockstep, at least some reasonable degree of correlation with each other. Higher PER, higher win shares. Higher Win Shares/48, higher Box Plus/Minus. Better BPM, better VORP. And in any combination thereof, when one stat moves, so do the others. But there’s one very notable exception; PER tends to undervalue catch-and-shoot wings. Need examples? Well, earlier this week I pointed out that Bojan Bogdanovic has a PER better than league average (15, by definition and baked in the stat) in just one season in his career, namely this one, …

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Analysis

The NBA’s Most-Entertaining-Team Power Rankings

- by Fox Doucette

If you have NBA League Pass, and all you’re using it for is to watch your favorite team because you live out of market, you are badly shortchanging yourself basketball-wise. (I mean yeah, don’t get me wrong, I love the Pacers, but I am first and foremost a lover of fine basketball and I must admit that Indiana doesn’t always play the most entertaining brand of basketball out there.) So for you, the League Pass viewer, I’m going to offer you a very simple statistical model to rank 1-30 the teams you should be watching if you like entertaining basketball. …

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Analysis

Gregg Popovich Needs To Retire Right Now

- by Fox Doucette

Gregg Popovich is one of the greatest coaches in NBA history, a five-time champion, the man who is to Tim Duncan what Bill Belichick is to Tom Brady in football. The Spurs won 50 games or more for 18 straight seasons between 1999-2000 and 2016-17. Stretching back to David Robinson‘s rookie year in 1989-90, San Antonio has, in all but one season (the 1996-97 tank-o-rama that netted them Duncan in the draft), won at least 47 games out of every 82 (they went 37-13 in the ’99 lockout year, a 61-21 full-season pace.) They are the ultimate proud NBA franchise. …

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Analysis

Why Do 50-Point Games Come So Often In Losses?

- by Fox Doucette

Back on November 17, Kemba Walker scored 60 points in a game his Hornets lost in overtime to the 76ers. Since then, Kevin Durant‘s scored 51 in a loss, and James Harden scored 54 in a loss as well. In fact, so far this season, players scoring 50 or better in a game are just 5-3 overall, a 51-win pace over 82 games. (Thanks are due to Basketball Reference’s excellent Play Index for making this analysis possible.) These are some of the biggest scoring explosions you see in the league. A 50-piece is a crowning achievement. Heck, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, the …

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Analysis

Kemba Walker Is One of the Worst Clutch Players of All-Time

- by Fox Doucette

Kemba Walker is one of the most enigmatic stars in the sport of basketball. His Hornets have outscored their opponents in each of the past three seasons, but their record in those years, respectively, are 36-46, 36-46, and 10-10. For the two full seasons, they underperformed their win expectation by six each of those two years, and this year, a team that should be on pace for 53 wins is instead on pace for 41. That, assuming Charlotte would be 13-7 if they held serve with their record this year, is 15 wins below expectation across a mammoth sample size …

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Analysis

The Pacers’ Starting Lineup Problem

- by Fox Doucette

The Indiana Pacers are stuck between a rock and a hard place with their choice of starting lineup. Among players with at least 400 minutes played so far this season—in other words, high-minute-volume starters, of whom there are 98 in the NBA as of games of November 16—here are Indiana’s five guys ranked by True Shooting: Bojan Bogdanovic (5th), Victor Oladipo (79th), Myles Turner (81st), Darren Collison (84th), Thaddeus Young (90th.) And here, by on-court Net Rating, are the Pacers’ four highest-minutes reserves: Cory Joseph (13.1), Domantas Sabonis (7.0), Doug McDermott (6.4), Tyreke Evans (5.6). All four of those guys, …

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Analysis

Statistical Test: The 14-Second Offensive Rebound Shot Clock’s Effect On Pace

- by Fox Doucette

New for the 2018-19 season, the NBA has introduced a shot clock that resets to only 14 rather than 24 seconds when a team gets an offensive rebound. Which, in turn, should have an effect on pace; if you’ve shaved 10 seconds off an extended possession, and with about 20 offensive boards per game between any two given teams, you just created 200 extra seconds, or 3:20, or (very roughly) 1/15 more possessions over the course of an average NBA game. This, in turn, should increase league pace by half of that (since pace is divided by two to give …

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