Analysis
Analysis

In a Five-Game Series, Which Game Does the Losing Team Win?

- by Fox Doucette

It’s a rule of thumb when predicting a playoff series, especially in the first round, that the underdog team will lose the first two on the road to the higher seed, win Game 3 at home thanks to a super-energized crowd and a sense of purpose, then order will be restored, the higher seed wins Game 4, and then they close it out in five back in front of their own fans. But how true is that? Why not Game 4, trying to avoid the sweep? Or stealing one on the road then melting down at home and blowing the …

Read More
2018 Preview / Analysis

Grading My 2018 Preseason Picks: Eastern Conference

- by Fox Doucette

Looking back on the preseason previews, I covered the Western Conference and went 8-4 on my picks where I set a specific “over or under” bet in the article. Sure, I got two other picks wrong without saying a number, and the 15th case was simply saying the Warriors were good without providing context, so I gave myself an 8-6-1 record. Did I do as well in the East? Besides being one of the legion of people who didn’t see the Pacers coming, I mean (more on that later.) In order of publication: MIAMI HEAT Over/Under: 43 Pick: “But a …

Read More
2018 Preview / Analysis

Grading My 2018 Preseason Picks: Western Conference

- by Fox Doucette - 1 Comment

Before the season, I stuck my neck out and made 30 predictions for 30 teams, trying to decide whether they would go over or under their Vegas expectations. Of course, there’s plenty of stuff I got right. But there’s also a lot of stuff I got hilariously wrong, so let’s go through real quick and see how I did, in order of posting date for the previews, and starting with the West (East coming later this morning): DALLAS MAVERICKS Over/Under: 35.5 Pick: “Expect about 30 wins.” (Under) Actual: 24-58 So I overrated them. I did, however, predict Harrison Barnes would …

Read More
Analysis

2018 NBA Western Conference Playoff Preview and Finals Pick

- by Fox Doucette

We’ve done the East, now it’s time for the West. As per usual, these are much more gut-instinct heavy than the usual fare around here, because if history has taught me anything, it’s that you can do a bunch of extra work, crunch a bunch of numbers, and be just as wrong, because the playoffs are just a completely different beast from the regular season. Round 1 HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA – Rockets in 5 I’d have said sweep here, but reportedly Chris Paul is battling some injuries sustained late in the season, which means that the unbeatable triumvirate of CP3, …

Read More
Analysis

2018 NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions

- by Fox Doucette

The playoffs are upon us, and things tip off Saturday. Which means it’s time to make wild guesses that are almost assuredly going to be wrong, but at least there’s no Maryland-Baltimore County around to render the entire thing utterly silly. In a seven-game series, that just would’ve meant Virginia in five. We’ll start today with the Eastern Conference, do the West later this morning, then go ahead and stick the Finals pick at the end of that West article, so please do stay tuned. This is also going to be a lot more free-flowing and gut-based than your usual …

Read More
Analysis

All-Everything Postseason 2018 NBA Team Awards

- by Fox Doucette

Most of what I’ve had to say about these guys, I said in my companion piece about the end-of-season awards. I will say this: Picking All-Defense is so subjective and I can only watch so many games, so there is a lot of shot-in-the-dark and a lot of “in case of argument, let Basketball Reference be the final arbiter” that I’m convinced there’s no way to try and rank defenders on anything other than reputation, fan bias, or woefully inadequate counting stats like steals and blocks. Defensive Rating tends to overweight players on good defensive teams. Steals and blocks are …

Read More
Analysis

Official Pace and Space 2018 NBA Awards

- by Fox Doucette

We, sadly, do not get an official NBA media ballot here at Mystery Ship Studios, but if we did, you can bet we wouldn’t make head-up-the-rear-end decisions on who to give the major NBA awards to. Which, besides being a “shut up about Donovan Mitchell” argument, informs the philosophy behind this not-at-all-slapped-together completely personal-bias-laden seriously I’m a Pacers fan and if you haven’t figured that out by now you will before we’re done here list of the 2018 NBA awards. Where applicable, these will be as they are presented on NBA.com/official. Meaning top 5 for the MVP and top 3 …

Read More
Analysis

2018 NBA Playoff Tiebreak Scenarios: Last Day of the Season!

- by Fox Doucette

Wednesday night, the NBA tips off a slate of games to close out the regular season. The playoffs are finally upon us. And the standings, especially in the Western Conference? They’re still a hot mess, with every slot from 3 through 9 up for grabs. Only the Rockets and Warriors are locked into their seed; everyone else is fighting for position. Meanwhile, things are a bit quieter in the East, where the Raptors (1), Celtics (2), and Pacers (5) are locked into their seeds, while Philly and Cleveland are fighting for 3 and 4 and the Wizards, Heat, and Bucks …

Read More
Analysis

The G-League Will Kill NCAA Basketball

- by Fox Doucette

Darius Bazley turned a lot of heads when he decided to decommit from the Syracuse Orange to instead declare for the NBA G-League draft. He won’t be drafted by an NBA team; he has to wait a year before that happens, and whichever G-League team picks him will have him as a rental for one year. Just because, for example, he ends up on the Mad Ants does not mean he’ll be picked by the Pacers when the time comes. There are plenty of good reasons why this is the right move for Bazley. For one thing, he’ll be freed …

Read More
Analysis

Sorting Out 2018 NBA West Playoffs Tiebreakers, Part 2

- by Fox Doucette

We’ve got one major set of playoff scenarios left in the Western Conference. Part 1 of the West covered the current 3 through 8 seeds, but we’re going to keep things simple in the second part. Why? Well, besides the fact that we covered just about every plausible scenario involving the Thunder, Pelicans, Spurs, Timberwolves, and Jazz in one go? If we add in the Clippers and/or Nuggets, all the who-beats-whom just basically reverts back to stuff we’ve already covered. So with that in mind, we’re going to restrict this to… WEST 7 Through 10 (Minnesota, Utah, LA Clippers, and …

Read More