Darren Collison Fought Regression and Regression Won

I want you to take a look at a picture I just took on Basketball Reference and tell me what you think it means, and for fun pretend that I didn’t completely gave it away in the headline. That is Darren Collison‘s right-side-of-the-chart advanced stats for the ten seasons, including the first 15 games of this one (through the Heat game on Nov. 16), of his career. You see the beautiful symmetry in it? Collison comes into the league, shows some promise, has a pretty good rookie season where it’s obvious he’s got a lot of potential if he can …

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The Pacers’ Starting Lineup Problem

The Indiana Pacers are stuck between a rock and a hard place with their choice of starting lineup. Among players with at least 400 minutes played so far this season—in other words, high-minute-volume starters, of whom there are 98 in the NBA as of games of November 16—here are Indiana’s five guys ranked by True Shooting: Bojan Bogdanovic (5th), Victor Oladipo (79th), Myles Turner (81st), Darren Collison (84th), Thaddeus Young (90th.) And here, by on-court Net Rating, are the Pacers’ four highest-minutes reserves: Cory Joseph (13.1), Domantas Sabonis (7.0), Doug McDermott (6.4), Tyreke Evans (5.6). All four of those guys, …

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Statistical Test: The 14-Second Offensive Rebound Shot Clock’s Effect On Pace

New for the 2018-19 season, the NBA has introduced a shot clock that resets to only 14 rather than 24 seconds when a team gets an offensive rebound. Which, in turn, should have an effect on pace; if you’ve shaved 10 seconds off an extended possession, and with about 20 offensive boards per game between any two given teams, you just created 200 extra seconds, or 3:20, or (very roughly) 1/15 more possessions over the course of an average NBA game. This, in turn, should increase league pace by half of that (since pace is divided by two to give …

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Breakfast Special: Dray, Durant, Dubs Destroyed

Well, if the Golden State Warriors were hoping for anything resembling relief with Draymond Green back in the lineup for a big national-TV game against the Houston Rockets Thursday night, the giant turd they left out on the court at Toyota Center would seem to suggest that the squad’s got bigger problems. Dray was 0-of-5 from the field, had no points, five rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers, whatever he contributed defensively got swamped under a minus-10 that was second-worst (behind only Kevin Durant) among the starters, and Golden State lost to Houston 107-86. Durant had a team-high 20 points, …

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Re-Opening Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s GOAT Case

With 10 Finals appearances, six rings, the all-time record for points scored, the second-most games (behind Robert Parish) and most minutes, 6 MVP awards, 19 All-Star games, only one season in his entire career where he was in the top ten in turnovers, tops in history in both offensive and overall Win Shares, an icon for two different franchises, and all of it capped off by the one of the most slam-dunk first-ballot Hall of Fame inductions you’re likely to see? Are we sure Kareem Abdul-Jabbar isn’t still the greatest of all time? After all, when Kareem finally retired in …

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Breakfast Special: Dwane Casey’s Two Scoops of Revenge

The dumbest thing the Toronto Raptors did in an otherwise stellar offseason was fire Dwane Casey after a 59-23 regular season. And the smartest thing the Detroit Pistons did was show Stan Van Gundy the door in order to get Casey back on an NBA sideline without missing a single gameday. So as good as the Raptors are—and at 12-2, they are very good—Wednesday night belonged to Casey’s Pistons, who won 106-104 on some late-game heroics from Reggie Bullock: Your game-winner, courtesy of @ReggieBullock35! #PistonsNow pic.twitter.com/0Bk49404Kn — Detroit Pistons (@DetroitPistons) November 15, 2018 Just watch the pure exuberance on Blake …

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Breakfast Special: Draymond’s Durant DNP

Draymond Green sat a game after bringing up Kevin Durant‘s impending free agency during a heated exchange between the two earlier in the week. And Warriors management? Well, they just essentially reminded Green that 7.5 points and 7.8 rebounds a game do not entitle someone to influence personnel decisions and suspended him. Green’s decline—in addition to all his other woes, he’s shooting 24 percent from three this year—makes him a curious case for the Warriors. On the one hand, he’s still the best ball-distributing forward in the league, with 7.4 assists a game to lead the team. But on the …

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Breakfast Special: La Rouge for LeVert

Caris LeVert deserved better than this. The Nets’ up-and-coming star, who has been on fire this season as Brooklyn has improved—they’d make the playoffs if the season ended today, at 6-8—fell victim to a gruesome season-ending injury in the Nets’ 120-113 loss to Minnesota. As if that weren’t bad enough, it was right before halftime of a game where LeVert was possibly on his way to a triple-double; he had 10 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Now normally this is where I’d show what I’m talking about, but… Do not watch the Caris LeVert injury.Go out of your way …

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Breakfast Special: Lonzo Teaches LeBron Free Throw Technique

The Los Angeles Lakers beat the woeful Atlanta Hawks by just a single point at home, and while 7-6 is exactly where you’d expect a team with a +0.7 point differential to be at 13 games into an 82-game season. The Lakers are, in many ways, the prototype G League Team Featuring LeBron James that the Cleveland Cavaliers were on two separate occasions in LeBron’s long and illustrious career. And it speaks to just how great LeBron is that this is so; LeBron’s 0.9 VORP is good for 2 or 3 wins in 13 games (2.43 if you go with …

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Breakfast Special: Melo, Thunder Beat Rockets

Carmelo Anthony had a great game for the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday night. His 1-of-11, two-point, minus-22 performance was the next best thing to the Thunder planting a mole on the Houston Rockets to throw the game so he could give his real team the big win. Accordingly, the Thunder, who don’t have Russell Westbrook until he recovers from his ankle sprain, won 98-80 in an ugly game on national television. Houston shot just ten free throws, making seven of them, and even though they made 50 percent of their two point shots (20-of-40), they were a wretched 26.2 percent …

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